A push to cut the defense budget likely won’t happen. But it’s interesting anyway.
The new conservative House of Representatives has taken power and is ready to take on President Joe Biden and his foreign policy.
As part of the deal that emerged as Rep. Kevin McCarthy persevered through 15 rounds of votes to secure the speakership last week, a group of 20 far-right lawmakers reportedly won concessions to cap the federal budget at 2022 levels in exchange for agreeing to raise the debt ceiling. If McCarthy’s caucus does follow through on that, it would put the gargantuan military budget — $817 billion of the $1.7 trillion federal budget this fiscal year — under the microscope. It could lead to significant cuts, perhaps up to $75 billion.
That may be unlikely for many reasons, particularly the bipartisan consensus on the threat of China. The Republican House committee chairs tasked with national security are certain to push back against calls to slash defense spending, even if it means confronting members of their own party, and both parties are eager to avoid the defense cuts triggered by the 2013 debt ceiling crisis. But the proposal, and the backlash to it, say a lot about how Washington is thinking about its role in the world, and how the new GOP House majority might add its own flavor of oversight to Biden’s statecraft.
Republicans are also entering Congress with some members pushing for more scrutiny of US policy toward the Ukraine war, which has included about $50 billion of military and financial assistance to Kyiv. McCarthy had brought attention to that “blank check” in November. His criticisms may have been the impetus for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise Washington visit just before Christmas, to reinforce support for his country in advance of the Republican takeover. Despite Zelenskyy’s appeal to Americans, polling shows that Republican voters are increasingly skeptical of continuing aid in perpetuity as the war approaches its one-year mark.
Now, members of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus that, after much jockeying, allowed McCarthy to clinch the speakership are trying to express a clear message on national security. “We can be both a budget hawk and a defense hawk,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) said on the Hugh Hewitt Show. “I support us going to absolute war, so to speak, to make sure that our defense is strong enough and our country is strong enough to take on China. But look, we have to do it responsibly and we haven’t been. We’re letting the swamp beat us. We’re letting the swamp set the terms.”
But looking ahead, defense cuts seem aspirational. Roy himself has disavowed them. And the staying power of the Republican Party’s leadership in key House committees, namely the many Mikes — Rep. Mike D. Rogers on Armed Services, Rep. Michael McCaul on Foreign Affairs, Rep. Mike Bost on Veterans Affairs, and Rep. Mike Turner on Intelligence — as well as the Biden White House’s own position, cannot be understated. “This push to defund our military in the name of politics is senseless and out of line with our national security needs,” White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said.
Or as one senior Democratic aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity, texted me, “There’s waaaaay too many hawks on their side. And for that matter on our side.”
Three reasons the budget won’t change
The hawkish consensus around the threat of China is a primary reason that cuts to the military budget are highly improbable.
Andrew Lautz, a policy director at the National Taxpayers Union, says that, even without compromising US national security, big cuts are possible on outdated military programs.
But he is pessimistic that those would happen in the near future and pointed out how quickly Republican leaders, even some of the holdouts that McCarthy negotiated with, are starting to dispute the notion that defense cuts have ever been on the table. And so-called Reagan Republicans want to see a bigger budget to counter China.
“The solution is always more spending,” Lautz told me. “I don’t think we will, anytime in the next two years, see meaningful cuts to the defense budget happening through the appropriations process.”
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Win McNamee/Getty Images
A second reason for the unlikelihood of significant defense budget cuts is the mess that unfolded in 2013, when debt ceiling negotiations led to the complex wrangling of a congressional super-committee and a sequestration process that caused mandated, across-the-board defense budget cuts that the military and lawmakers of both parties hated.
No one wants to repeat what happened with knock-on effects of the Budget Control Act of 2011. “Congress has to be a critical partner in resourcing the military and it must be done through a predictable process that allows for discussion, debate, and careful decision-making,” Joseph Votel, a retired general who is now president of the nonprofit trade group Business Executives for National Security, wrote in an email. “What appears to be happening now does not reflect any of those qualities.”
A third reason: The political energy that might go into pushing for a military budget cut is likely to be channeled into probing the utility and the limits of US aid to Ukraine.
Since 2021, the Biden administration has provided almost $25 billion of military aid to Ukraine as well as $24 billion in financial and humanitarian assistance. There are right-wing voices who support the aid, and progressives too see the importance of maintaining aid to beat Russia’s invasion even if it comes at the expense of empowering military contractors. National security officials argue staunchly in favor of it. “We need to make sure that we hold together the political support here,” former acting CIA director Michael Morell, who is currently a consultant at Beacon Global Strategies, said recently.
Even if that aid continues, House Republicans are likely to expand oversight. Republican concerns about the US public debt, longstanding worries about corrupt practices in Ukraine that could lead to difficulty in monitoring the use of weapons, and the aid’s effect on the US’s own national security, will all likely be raised in hearings.
The US is sending so many weapons to Ukraine that supply chains are strained and stockpiles have been depleted. “Our current policy toward Ukraine is just not sustainable financially and in terms of what we are actually giving Ukrainians,” says Dan Caldwell, vice president for foreign policy at the conservative organization Stand Together. “You can’t indefinitely provide the types of support we’re doing. We’re running out of ammunition to give them, we’re running out of certain types of equipment to get them.”
Not all Republicans agree. “The people who want to cut Ukraine aid are probably in the minority. I think often when you’re in the minority, you maybe speak louder, because you want to be heard,” says Mira Ricardel, a former deputy national security adviser during the Trump administration.
Even those who support Ukraine’s defense say that renewed congressional attention will be positive. Ricardel, who now works at the Chertoff Group consultancy, says that oversight will force the White House to sharpen its thinking. “The beauty of having two branches of government working on this particular matter [is] it forces you to articulate what you stand for, why, and how you are going to do things and to defend them,” she told me.
The defense budget might not change, but there is a growing group of lawmakers pushing for it nevertheless
White House spokesperson Andrew Bates says there is “bipartisan opposition” to military budget cuts — but there is also bipartisan support.
A loose coalition of Republicans and Democrats has been calling for a more restrained and realistic US foreign policy. It’s not an organized cohort by any means. Some push for views that might be called isolationist. Others have voted for aid to Ukraine, just continuing to advocate for a negotiated end to the war. What unites them is their criticism of some of the articles of faith of US foreign policy that have led to an over-reliance on military force abroad.
The Koch-backed nonprofit Stand Together, where Caldwell is an executive, supports many think-tank experts who are pushing for a rethink of such entrenched policies. “We have seemingly unstoppable growth in the defense budget that is not tied to a realistic strategy,” he told me. “The only way that you can realistically reduce defense spending is by effectively changing America’s grand strategy.”
The military budget has been growing — by 4.3 percent, adjusted for inflation, over the past two years. Rep. Mike Rogers, who will chair the influential House Armed Services Committee, has advocated for increases of up to 5 percent each year.
Though in so many senses the US is more polarized along partisan lines than ever, progressives and far-right Republicans at times agree that the military budget is inflated and wasteful. It’s not clear they agree about enough else on national security to challenge the status quo.
Many former senior Trump administration officials have decamped to the America First Policy Institute. The organization notes that “Maintaining a strong military is not exclusively about having a large top-line budget,” though some of its suggestions for cuts would make progressives bristle, like eliminating “non-military issues such as climate change and democracy promotion from military doctrine and defense policies.” (Though many progressives would agree with the sentiment of ending the “use of military or tax dollars for nation building.”)
It’s also not clear what role the so-called rebel wing of the Republican Party will play in the House. As the backroom negotiations that brought McCarthy the speakership become clearer, the experts I spoke with told me that defense budget cuts seem unlikely — a sign that the disruption could reach its limit here.
Nevertheless, the mainstream discussion presents an opportunity to consider how massive spending outlays on the US military reflect the inertia of military adventurism that followed the September 11, 2001, attacks, bolstered by the entrenched financial interests of the military-industrial complex.
Interestingly, it is Hewitt, the right-wing talk show host, who said the House rebels’ messaging was too muddled. On his program, he pushed Rep. Chip Roy to more clearly articulate how Republicans can be China hawks while limiting the debt. The answer didn’t offer much: “We must end woke and weaponized government, and stop funding bureaucrats that are engaged in tyranny over the American people,” Roy replied. “We can have a strong national defense, we can beat up DOD to be non-woke, go find savings, and then stretch and increase what we need to to beat China.”
Winterizing doesn’t have to be a hassle.
Winter weather can wreak havoc on homes (and your wallet) no matter where you live: frozen pipes, broken furnaces, flooded basements, drafty rooms, high utility bills, the cost of repairing burst pipes or busted heaters. Storms and cold weather can push an HVAC system already on the brink of collapse to failure at the exact moment you need heating most, leaving everyone in your household at risk for both physical and mental health issues.
While homeowners have greater control over upgrades and repairs to their houses, renters can also take simple, preventative measures to winterize. Whether you live in a warmer, rainier climate or contend with below-freezing temperatures every winter, experts offer guidance on how to prepare your house for the season.
Prevent problems before temperatures plummet
“One of the big things is being proactive versus reactive,” says Dylan Evans, an HVAC and plumbing expert at Complete Comfort Heating, Air and Plumbing, an HVAC and plumbing maintenance company based in Greenwood, Indiana. “A lot of times, people wait until it gets severely cold outside to even acknowledge that their heat exists.”
The simplest, and most effective, preventative winterizing measure is regularly changing the filter on your furnace. Over time, the filter can get clogged with dust and debris, causing the HVAC system to stop functioning altogether, says Bill Samuel, a licensed general contractor in Chicago and owner of Blue Ladder Development. Most filters will need to be replaced every 90 days, Evans says, but if after 30 or 45 days your filter is dark and dirty, you’ll want to swap it earlier, so check it about once a month. “Not even kidding, probably about 50 percent of the calls that we get when it gets super cold outside, it ends up simply being a dirty filter,” Evans says.
Renters can easily replace the air filters in the furnace of a rented home. Just check your lease or clarify with your landlord to determine who is responsible for replacing air filters, especially if you live in an apartment and don’t have access to the building’s furnace.
While you’re changing the filter, make sure the furnace isn’t leaking, making any strange noises, or has flashing lights, Samuel says. Any of these signs could indicate an issue, so call an HVAC professional or tell your property manager.
Evans also recommends yearly inspections by plumbing and heating and cooling companies so they can identify any potential problems. Renters concerned about the health of their building’s systems should ask their landlord to schedule an inspection before a cold snap or winter storm approaches. (More on what landlords are legally required to provide later.) “In our area, landlords are pretty receptive to it,” Evans says, “because it’s a lot easier to have somebody talking to you about getting preventative maintenance than it is calling and saying, ‘Hey, the property that I rent from you is now currently full of water.’”
For those who live in flood-prone areas, Evans suggests keeping bags of sand on hand to use as a barrier preventing water from entering your home or garage. FEMA recommends clearing out gutters and downspouts so water can flow easily away from your home, and raising equipment like air conditioning condensers, heat pumps, and water meters onto platforms that are at least a foot above the anticipated height of floodwaters. Protect your valuable documents and items, such as birth certificates and passports, and store them in a location where water isn’t likely to damage them and in watertight containers. If you can, make sure any appliances (washer, dryer, hot water heater) and HVAC systems aren’t in flood-prone areas in your house, like the basement. (This might not be possible if you rent or these appliances were already installed on lower levels.)
Keep warm air from getting out
Caulking and weatherstripping doors and windows can save you anywhere from 5 to 20 percent in energy savings, according to the US Department of Energy. Caulking and weatherstripping seal areas around doors and windows where cold air can sneak through. The Department of Energy provides DIY guides to caulking and weatherstripping, but if you’re not super handy, reach out to a professional. Rope caulk isn’t permanent and may be a good option for renters.
An easy renter-friendly insulating method is to apply plastic wrap over drafty windows. You can find a window insulation kit from a hardware store (Home Depot sells a four-pack for $6) and apply the adhesive and the plastic film around your window, then use a blow dryer to shrink the plastic in place.
For households that are unable to afford winterization upgrades or their heating bills, you can apply for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which provides funding for these projects and utilities.
Since warm air rises, Samuel suggests setting your ceiling fans to spin clockwise in order to push warm air down toward you. Look for a switch at the base of the fan allowing you to change the direction. Just make sure you keep the fan on low speed. “This will keep an updraft that will move warm air trapped on the ceiling around throughout the room,” Samuel says.
Protect your water pipes from freezing and bursting
Pipes have a higher risk of freezing once temperatures dip below 20 degrees Fahrenheit, says Brittany Katterjohn, the marketing coordinator at Complete Comfort Heating, Air, and Plumbing. If you have pipes exposed to the elements — outside, in the garage, attics, basement, or in an area that gets cold — you’ll want to insulate them so they don’t freeze. Most hardware stores will stock pipe insulation — “it’s kind of like a smaller pool noodle,” Evans says. “It comes in a full piece and you’re able to cut it and it basically hugs the pipe. That’ll help those pipes from getting below-freezing temperatures.” Evans also suggests letting the cold water side of one faucet on each level of your house drip slightly in temperatures below 20 degrees. “That moving water will help make it harder for that pipe to freeze,” he says.
If your pipes do freeze and you or your landlord can’t get a hold of a plumber, you can try to thaw them yourself using a hair dryer or a space heater, Katterjohn says. You can tell a pipe is frozen when water isn’t coming out of a faucet and there is frost on the outside of the pipe. Constantly monitor the thawing process — never leave a hair dryer or space heater unattended — and leave your faucets open so when water starts to flow again, you know the pipe is properly warmed up. “If this doesn’t work or you do not have access to these supplies, we recommend shutting your water access off completely until a licensed professional can address it,” Katterjohn says.
Outdoor water spigots for hoses are also at risk of freezing. Remove any connected hoses and turn off the interior shut-off valve to avoid freezing, Samuel says.
Signs your pipes burst include puddles under sinks, water damage on walls and ceilings, low water pressure, and a high water bill. In this case, shut off water access into your house if you can. Your water shut-off valve is likely by your water meter or water heater. For those without access to the water shut-off valve, contact your landlord immediately.
Have a backup plan for worst-case scenarios
While laws differ from state to state and city to city, generally, landlords are required to provide heat, hot and cold water, and operating plumbing. Any issues with the temperature of your apartment and water should be brought up with your landlord or property manager as soon as they arise. If they fail to respond or repair any damages, send a formal complaint in writing to the landlord. Should the landlord still avoid the fixes, tenants can withhold rent, pay for repairs out-of-pocket and deduct costs from their rent, or take legal action. Again, check your state and city’s property maintenance laws to determine your landlord’s responsibilities and tenant rights.
In the event of storms preventing technicians from making calls and repairs, have a space heater available to keep your household warm during an emergency, preferably one with a built-in timer that will power off if accidentally left unattended, Evans says. Don’t use your gas oven for heat as it’s both a fire hazard and increases your risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. If you’ve lost power altogether, try a portable generator but make sure you run it at least 20 feet away from your home and never inside, since generators burn fuel and, again, can cause carbon monoxide poisoning.
Ideally, you’ll want to have all materials and plans in place before storms roll in or temperatures drop so you’re not scrambling during an emergency. A few preventative measures can keep minor issues from turning into catastrophes — or prepare you for the next storm.
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Protests after the arrest of former President Pedro Castillo emphasize Peru’s deep stratification.
Protests in Peru related to the arrest of former President Pedro Castillo have become increasingly violent, leading to many deaths, and show no real signs of abating. Despite the unprecedented political violence and calls for her resignation, Castillo’s successor and former Vice President, President Dina Boluarte, refused on Sunday to step down, saying, “My commitment is with Peru.”
In the just-over a month since the protests began, 49 people, including children and police officers have been killed, the Associated Press reported Friday. Demonstrations are concentrated in Peru’s southern Andean area, particularly in the region of Puno, Peru’s poorest and which has the highest Indigenous concentration, and in the cities of Ayacucho and Arequipa, among others, though they have also occurred in the capital Lima as recently as this week. These are the areas where calls for Boluarte’s resignation are the most resonant, among rural populations who saw in Castillo one of their own — a “son of the soil” — penetrate the elite world of politics in Lima.
However, Castillo came into office inexperienced, unprepared, and unwilling to compromise or make alliances. For that reason his campaign promises of greater prosperity, improved education and healthcare for the rural poor have largely gone unrealized. Just prior to a third attempt by Peru’s congress to impeach him, Castillo announced an autogolpe, a self-coup, dissolving the government and instituting governance by decree. However, his ignominious tenure ended in his arrest; he’s now in prison on multiple charges including corruption.
Boluarte and Peru’s security forces, meanwhile, have been accused of using excessive force resulting in the deaths and injuries of dozens of protesters.
Castillo squandered an opportunity for change in Lima
Castillo’s win against Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President and dictator Alberto Fujimori, represented a dramatic break with decades of right-leaning rule by Lima’s elites in July 2021. But Castillo’s total lack of experience and political infrastructure, among other failings, meant that despite his momentous election, he couldn’t govern.
“The party of Castillo has never been in government, they don’t have the experience, so if you think that Castillo represents the Left in Peru, the Left has never been in power,” Moisés Arce, a professor of Latin American social sciences at Tulane University, told Vox. “So they don’t have professionals, a workforce, that could be capable of creating or producing a good government.”
Castillo ran on a Marxist platform, promising to nationalize the country’s massive mining industry, rewrite the Fujimori-era constitution, and impose higher taxes on the wealthy. Those promises, as well as Castillo’s own identity as a former schoolteacher, union leader, and campesino garnered him support in rural areas and among the Indigenous population, which represents about a quarter of the total population of Peru.
“If there was a moment to create redistribution, greater social programs for the poor, expand healthcare, you name it — it was Castillo,” Arce said, indicating that the conditions for change were there, but Castillo failed to meet the moment due to “a complete lack of preparation.”
The stratification of Peruvian society and politics is noteworthy, and a significant aspect of the current unrest. “Castillo tapped into the grievance” in Peru, Arce said. “Coming out of the pandemic, poverty in Peru increased, a lot of services collapsed, the health system [collapsed] — Castillo kind of emerges out of that grievance.”
Castillo, though incompetent, politically unconnected, ill-equipped, and possibly corrupt, was a powerful symbol for low-income, rural, and Indigenous people who had no previous representation at the highest levels of Peruvian politics. As Arce explained, Castillo didn’t perform particularly well in public opinion polls; he wasn’t well liked, but congress fared even worse.
Protesters who identified with Castillo and who already held serious, legitimate grievances with the Peruvian state and its elite are now engaged in some of the bloodiest protests in Peru’s recent history. They’ve shut down airports, blocked major roads, and clashed violently with police. Meanwhile, Boluarte imposed a state of emergency in December which infringes on Peruvians’ constitutional rights to gather and to move freely within the country.
Right-leaning critics of the protesters have referred to them as terrorists, evoking the deep national trauma of the Shining Path insurgency of the ‘80s and ‘90s. Maoist Shining Path insurgents killed an estimated 31,000 Peruvians, and their actions are still evoked in the Peruvian concept of terruqueo, as Simeon Tegel wrote in the Washington Post Thursday. Terruqueo, or smearing an opponent by falsely accusing them of terrorism, has bubbled up in the recent protests — allegedly with racist overtones due to the backgrounds of the demonstrators, providing a veil of impunity for the use of excessive force.
On Thursday, protesters attempted to take over the airport in the tourist city of Cusco, prompting officials to close the airport near the Macchu Picchu Inca citadel. Protesters in Puno lit a car on fire with a police officer inside, set fire to the home of a member of congress, and stormed the airport there, while police used tear gas and live rounds against the demonstrators, according to the Washington Post.
Some groups like Amnesty International have spoken out against Boluarte’s handling of the protests, singling out the National Police and the Armed Forces for excessive use of force against the protesters, most recently on January 11, after at least 17 protesters were killed in the city of Juliaca in the Puno region. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has also sent a delegation to Peru on Wednesday to observe the human rights conditions there.
Peru’s attorney general also opened an investigation into Boluarte and other top officials, accusing them of “genocide, qualified homicide and serious injuries,” Agence France-Presse reported Tuesday. Castillo, meanwhile, is pleading his case on Twitter from his jail cell in Barbadillo prison.
Peruvian politics has long been in crisis. That’s unlikely to change.
Peru is no stranger to political upheaval; Alberto Fujimori, a dictator and Peru’s best-known leader, began his tenure as a democratically elected president. He took power in much the way Castillo attempted to back in December. Fujimori led Peru from 1990 until 2000, after which he fled to Japan; he’s currently in prison for human rights abuses committed while he was in power.
Since 2016, no Peruvian president has finished their term, and it’s unlikely that Boluarte will complete the remainder of Castillo’s, which is set to end in 2026. Boluarte has proposed to push elections up to 2024, which the congress agreed to, although protesters demand new elections for both the presidency and the legislature as soon as possible.
Boluarte has also managed to cobble together support from the several small right-wing parties that together hold the majority — another point of anger for the protesters who see her as moving toward the right despite being elected as a Leftist. However, the legislature approved her government on Tuesday, a significant vote of confidence despite the unrest.
Ultimately, what happens next is dependent on what is happening in Lima, Arce said. And while the protests are violent, dramatic, and headline-grabbing, they’re concentrated outside the capital. Though according to the Council on Foreign Relations the protesters have the backing of Peru’s largest federation of unions and its largest Indigenous association, it will be difficult to maintain momentum “unless they make alliances in Lima,” Arce said.
In terms of Peru’s political future, the end of Castillo’s presidency also likely means the end of the Left in Peru for now, Arce said. Boluarte’s critics argue, perhaps rightly, that though she was elected on a Leftist ticket, she’s moved to the right since assuming office, and immediately distanced herself from Castillo after his attempted self-coup.
“You can’t really predict things in Peru,” Arce said, “but I think Castillo, in a way, has delegitimized any meaning of what the Left is or what the Left should be.”